A new investigation by The Atlantic has revived one of the most disputed questions surrounding the period before October 7, 2023: did Egypt give Israel a meaningful warning that Hamas was preparing a major attack?
The report, published on September 25, 2026 by Vivian Salama, says Abbas Kamel, then the head of Egypt's General Intelligence Service, secretly flew to Israel on September 26, 2023. According to The Atlantic, a chartered Cessna linked to Egyptian intelligence landed at Ben Gurion Airport, remained in Israel for 67 minutes and returned to Cairo.
The Atlantic says Kamel was aboard and met unidentified senior Israeli officials. According to officials from several countries who were later briefed on the alleged visit, Kamel warned that Hamas appeared to be mobilizing for a major attack and that the window to prevent a serious escalation was closing. He reportedly recommended additional economic concessions to Gaza in an effort to avoid conflict.
But several important parts of the story remain unproven in public.
What the flight records establish
The strongest documentary element concerns the aircraft itself. The Atlantic says an Israel Airports Authority log and independent flight-tracking data confirm that a Cessna flew from Cairo to Ben Gurion on September 26 and remained on the ground for about an hour.
That evidence supports the flight. It does not, by itself, prove that Kamel was a passenger.
No passenger manifest, airport security footage, visitor log, photograph or named eyewitness identifying Kamel has been made public. The Atlantic attributes his presence to unnamed sources. It also does not identify the Israeli officials he allegedly met.
That distinction matters. Four separate claims are often being presented as though they were one: an Egyptian-linked aircraft landed in Israel, Kamel was aboard, Kamel met Israeli officials, and Kamel delivered a warning about Hamas. The public evidence does not establish all four at the same level.
What the alleged warning did and did not contain
The Atlantic's own account does not describe a detailed warning of the attack that eventually took place on October 7.
The report says Kamel did not provide an attack date, a specific target or operational details about how Hamas would attack. There was no publicly documented warning about a mass border breach, hostage-taking, attacks on specific communities or military bases, or the methods used in the eventual assault.
The claim is therefore more accurately described as a reported strategic warning that Hamas appeared to be preparing for a major attack or that Gaza was approaching a dangerous escalation, rather than proof that Egypt supplied Israel with a detailed forecast of the October 7 operation.
Israel denies the visit and warning
Tzachi Hanegbi, who headed Israel's National Security Council at the time, told The Atlantic that, to the best of his knowledge, Kamel did not visit Israel on September 26 and that no Egyptian warning of the kind described was delivered.
The dispute is not new. On October 9, 2023, after early reports that Egypt had warned Israel before the attack, the Prime Minister's Office issued a categorical denial. It said no advance message from Egypt had reached Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and that Netanyahu had neither spoken nor met with Kamel since the government was formed.
In late 2025, Israel Hayom reported separately that an Egyptian-linked aircraft had landed at Ben Gurion on September 26 and that Egyptian messages warning that Gaza was "explosive" had reached Israeli institutions. Israel's Foreign Ministry and National Security Council disputed the central claims in that report.
Egyptian accounts have also conflicted
The Egyptian side of the public record is not consistent either.
On October 9, 2023, the Associated Press quoted an unnamed Egyptian intelligence official saying Cairo had repeatedly warned Israel that "something big" was being planned from Gaza. Two days later, Egyptian media quoted an unnamed senior official denying that Egypt had warned Israel about a major operation ten days before the war.
In December 2023, then-Egyptian foreign minister Sameh Shoukry said he had no specific information about such an incident, while adding that Egypt had regularly warned in broader terms that deteriorating conditions could lead to violence.
As of September 26, 2026, no public statement located from Kamel himself, Egypt's General Intelligence Service or President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has produced documentary evidence resolving whether Kamel made the September 26 visit.
What official investigations have established
Publicly released Israeli inquiries have documented major intelligence and defensive failures before October 7, including warning signs that were misunderstood or discounted. They have not, however, publicly established that Kamel was at Ben Gurion on September 26 or that a specific Egyptian warning about the eventual attack reached Israel's leadership.
No public passenger manifest, meeting minutes, intelligence cable or contemporaneous briefing record has been released that resolves the dispute.
The election context
The report was published during Israel's election campaign. The election for the 26th Knesset is scheduled for October 27, 2026. Responsibility for the failures before October 7 has become a major political issue, and both government and opposition figures are using new reporting about prewar warnings in the campaign.
Likud has rejected the latest reports and accused journalists of political motives. Opposition figures have cited reports of prior warnings in arguments about responsibility for October 7.
Those political reactions are documented. A separate claim that The Atlantic deliberately timed its investigation to influence the election is not. No public evidence located so far establishes that the publication date was chosen for that purpose.
What can be said with confidence
The evidence currently supports a narrower conclusion than many headlines suggest.
A Cairo to Ben Gurion flight on September 26, 2023 is supported by flight and airport records. The claim that Abbas Kamel was aboard is reported by The Atlantic but remains publicly unverified and is denied by Hanegbi. The alleged meeting with Israeli officials is also reported but not independently documented in public. The alleged warning about Hamas is attributed to unnamed sources and did not include a date or operational details of the October 7 attack.
That leaves a significant unresolved question. It does not, on the public evidence available today, establish either that Israel received actionable intelligence describing the October 7 attack or that the entire Atlantic account is false.
Sources
- The Atlantic, "Egypt's Warning to Israel," September 25, 2026: https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/09/egypt-israel-gaza-hamas-palestinian-october-7/688720/
- Associated Press, October 9, 2023: https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-hamas-airstrikes-hostages-4377e096f62bf535bebcdff38cf16049
- Israel Hayom, December 29, 2025: https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/12/29/egypt-warned-israel-of-imminent-danger-from-gaza-weeks-before-oct-7/
- Ynet, September 26, 2026: https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/ryucfd49mx
- Israel Central Elections information, 2026: https://www.gov.il/apps/moin/bocharim/en
